Raoul Pal: Day of Reckoning Coming for VIX Shorts?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jan 21, 2017 10:58:44 AM

MacroVoices interview with Real Vision Television co-founder Raoul Pal

Key excerpts in attached article:

  • compares the VIX contango trade to the portfolio insurance problem that was blamed for the 1987 crash
  • they don't realize the rate of change of the VIX can be so extraordinary that the losses can mount up massively and super quickly
  • record level of speculative long positions in the oil markets compares to the conditions in the summer of 2014 prior to the bear market decline
  • The other thing was speculative position in crude oil was all time high in fact if I took the trend going back from the early 80's it was seven standard deviations above that trend and well over three standard deviations maybe four standard deviations from the trend in the last 20 years or 15 years.
  • I've seen a similar situation with copper driven by China and a few other things where copper position is wildly extreme and so I start to think well too much reflation is priced into these things maybe there’s an interesting opportunity on the short side
  • What is interesting oil volatility has been coming lower. Look, I don't think it's going to get back to where it was in 2014 when it was trading below 20 but it has come down from a peak of 80, a kind of a real trading range of 50 down to 30. If it comes any lower the ability to buy options start to make sense because oil volatility can go to 80 can go to a 100
Read More

Topics: oil, copper, vix

Second Quarter Forecast: Commodities and Gold

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 18, 2014 6:00:00 AM

This is the "Part 2" of a "4 Part" blog series - The Second Quarter Forecast.
In Part 1 of our forecast we tackled the current landscape of the global currency markets. International trade of commodities is predominantly transacted in U.S. dollars, making the price movement of the U.S. Dollar a key precipitating factor in the value of commodity prices and the subsequent inflationary/deflationary impact upon an economy. When reflecting upon the prices of commodities over the last several years, it can be generalized as a big chaotic muddle. This "chaotic muddle" is being driven by two conflicting forces - a slowing global economy (generally weakening commodities like copper, iron ore and oil) and a weakening U.S. Dollar that generally leads to a nominal rise in commodities prices. This "chaotic muddle" could turn decidedly bearish for commodities if our bullish dollar forecast comes to fruition. This was a core foundation of our annual forecast and remains  a core thesis for our Second Quarter Forecast.      

Read More

Topics: Market Forecast, Gold, oil, euro, U.S. Dollar, commodities

Was that a top in oil? Market Forecast

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 3, 2013 7:53:00 AM

Holidays are over.  The trading desks are going to be fully staffed and will be on high alert for the next market move. The question is- will traders see an oversold market that they trade higher or a weak market that cannot be supported?  It is likely that many traders will start the weak off with some range bound chop and that the ECB rate announcement on Thursday and U.S. Jobs numbers on Friday will be the focal point for the next significant move. 

Read More

Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, Market Crash, oil

Oil Higher? Crash Alert remains on the S&P500

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Aug 27, 2013 7:47:00 AM

CRASH ALERT: Crash alerts do not guarantee a crash but simply observe that we are in a market state where all the criteria for a crash are there. To review the criteria, click here.

Read More

Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, Crash Alert, oil

Weekly Market Forecast for Traders and Investors March 18, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on Mar 18, 2013 2:10:00 PM

Read More

Topics: Gold, weekly market forecast, oil, S&P, weekly market outlook, stock market, stocks, U.S. Dollar, resistance levels, support levels, silver, technical analysis, currencies

Weekly Market Forecast for Traders and Investors March 11, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on Mar 11, 2013 12:41:00 PM



Read More

Topics: Market Forecast, bonds, Gold, oil, S&P, U.S. Dollar, commodities, resistance levels, support levels, intermarket analysis, Canadian Markets, options

Weekly Market Outlook for The Educated Investor - March 4th, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on Mar 5, 2013 8:21:00 AM

Read More

Topics: Gold, oil, euro, USD, dollar, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, educated investor, weekly market outlook, market outlook, derivatives, derivatives market specialist, chartered market techinician, support, resistance, support & resistance, trend, trend in force

Subscribe to Email Updates

Browse by Tag

Follow Me