Second Quarter Forecast: Commodities and Gold

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 18, 2014 6:00:00 AM

This is the "Part 2" of a "4 Part" blog series - The Second Quarter Forecast.
In Part 1 of our forecast we tackled the current landscape of the global currency markets. International trade of commodities is predominantly transacted in U.S. dollars, making the price movement of the U.S. Dollar a key precipitating factor in the value of commodity prices and the subsequent inflationary/deflationary impact upon an economy. When reflecting upon the prices of commodities over the last several years, it can be generalized as a big chaotic muddle. This "chaotic muddle" is being driven by two conflicting forces - a slowing global economy (generally weakening commodities like copper, iron ore and oil) and a weakening U.S. Dollar that generally leads to a nominal rise in commodities prices. This "chaotic muddle" could turn decidedly bearish for commodities if our bullish dollar forecast comes to fruition. This was a core foundation of our annual forecast and remains  a core thesis for our Second Quarter Forecast.      

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Topics: Market Forecast, Gold, oil, euro, U.S. Dollar, commodities

Second Quarter Forecast: Will the U.S. Dollar Rally Start?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 13, 2014 4:50:00 PM

The Second Quarter Forecast - Part 1: Currencies
The first quarter of the year has been generally uneventful. The January emerging market crisis stabilized and the core central banks in Europe and North America stayed status quo. Throughout history, the first quarter of the year has traditionally had the strongest performance as there is considerable money flow from investors putting retirement savings to work. Subsequently, the second quarter of the year houses the infamous May month from which the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage was coined. So what should you expect? Our forecasting at "Learn to Trade Global" is centered around our Intermarket Analytics methodology.  Intermarket Analysis involves the study of the relationships and correlations of the core asset classes of currencies, commodities, bonds, real estate and stocks. When investors and traders understand the conditions of the global market place, it allows them to identify the path of least resistance for finding investment returns. So let us try to draw some basis conclusions about the markets based on current market conditions.

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Topics: Market Forecast, euro, U.S. Dollar

Goldman Sachs Cowboys Herding the Cattle

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jan 15, 2014 12:52:00 PM

Goldman Sachs came out with a market call suggesting the "Lofty" market is ripe for a 10% market drop. There it is. Now all investors take heed. While this has stirred the media, the real question I want to answer is - what is Goldman's agenda? 

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Topics: Market Forecast, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs forecast

Does the "January Effect" Predictor Still Work?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Dec 30, 2013 3:08:00 PM

In the past, the month of January has had a good track record in predicting the trend of the stock market for the upcoming calendar year. Through history the “January Effect” was a result of tax-loss selling which causes investors to sell their losing positions at the end of December or subsequently waiting until January to take their profits to defer the capital gains a further year. Let’s review the tendencies.

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Topics: Market Forecast, market outlook, S&P 500

Is Natural Gas Breaking Out?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Oct 15, 2013 7:31:00 AM

Natural Gas prices hit an important multi-year low during the August decline down toward $3.25/BTU.  Since that low, we have seen some relatively positive price action into the now seasonally strong period going into the winter. Will we see the advance continue? 

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Topics: Market Forecast, Natural Gas, Encana

Market Cycles and S&P500 Market Forecast

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 27, 2013 8:23:00 AM

If you have been reading our blogs it is hard to misinterpret our bearish inclination.  I have never had a problem being bullish or bearish when the market conditions dictate, but we want to clarify our position. The way we view the markets is focused around economic and credit cycles.  These cycles drive the markets higher and lower.  Throughout history, there has never been a market advance that did not end with a corrective move. Every trough-to-peak market advance is followed by a peak-to-trough correction.  This sequence of cycles higher and lower creates a mean price level through the middle of the cycles.  The market has never failed to revert back to the mean. 

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, Market Cycles

Financial Stocks Failing and Bonds Rallying

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 25, 2013 9:08:00 AM

On Monday we specified the key criteria for us to go back on “Crash Alert”. We wanted to focus on the first two criteria (Bonds and Financials) in today’s blog. 

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Topics: Market Forecast, bonds, financial stocks

Fed Taper and Market Forecast for S&P500

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 23, 2013 9:36:00 AM

The market participants are more confused and unanchored than ever from what to expect from the Fed. To make matters worse, it is clear that Republicans have every intention to use the debt ceiling as pawn to attack government spending on Obamacare. Investors are now looking at a new “Fiscal Cliff” style fear.  This remains a vulnerable period in the market.  

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, Fed Tapering

The Fed, Market Forecast S&P500, Bonds and Gold

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 19, 2013 9:02:00 AM

WOW.  It wasn’t that the Fed didn’t taper.  The message was that economy is in no state to begin tapering any time soon.  The bottom line is that the media pundits and analysts were dead wrong. In our past blogs and presentations we have maintained that the Fed will never be able to exit.  We will have further follow up presentations to explain.

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, bonds, Gold, Fed Tapering

Drum Roll Please... Fed Tapering and S&P500 Market Forecast

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 18, 2013 8:57:00 AM

It is finally here, the most anticipated FOMC Statement of the year.  Will the fed taper and how much? The market is pricing in a tapering of about 10 billion will be watching in anticipation if their forecast comes to fruition. We can do all the forecasting we want, but the fed is completely in control of the next market move. Anticipate considerable knee jerk reactions to the initial release including a number of fake out moves higher and lower.

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, Fed Tapering

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