Second Quarter Forecast: Commodities and Gold

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 18, 2014 6:00:00 AM

This is the "Part 2" of a "4 Part" blog series - The Second Quarter Forecast.
In Part 1 of our forecast we tackled the current landscape of the global currency markets. International trade of commodities is predominantly transacted in U.S. dollars, making the price movement of the U.S. Dollar a key precipitating factor in the value of commodity prices and the subsequent inflationary/deflationary impact upon an economy. When reflecting upon the prices of commodities over the last several years, it can be generalized as a big chaotic muddle. This "chaotic muddle" is being driven by two conflicting forces - a slowing global economy (generally weakening commodities like copper, iron ore and oil) and a weakening U.S. Dollar that generally leads to a nominal rise in commodities prices. This "chaotic muddle" could turn decidedly bearish for commodities if our bullish dollar forecast comes to fruition. This was a core foundation of our annual forecast and remains  a core thesis for our Second Quarter Forecast.      

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Topics: Market Forecast, Gold, oil, euro, U.S. Dollar, commodities

Second Quarter Forecast: Will the U.S. Dollar Rally Start?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 13, 2014 4:50:00 PM

The Second Quarter Forecast - Part 1: Currencies
The first quarter of the year has been generally uneventful. The January emerging market crisis stabilized and the core central banks in Europe and North America stayed status quo. Throughout history, the first quarter of the year has traditionally had the strongest performance as there is considerable money flow from investors putting retirement savings to work. Subsequently, the second quarter of the year houses the infamous May month from which the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage was coined. So what should you expect? Our forecasting at "Learn to Trade Global" is centered around our Intermarket Analytics methodology.  Intermarket Analysis involves the study of the relationships and correlations of the core asset classes of currencies, commodities, bonds, real estate and stocks. When investors and traders understand the conditions of the global market place, it allows them to identify the path of least resistance for finding investment returns. So let us try to draw some basis conclusions about the markets based on current market conditions.

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Topics: Market Forecast, euro, U.S. Dollar

Euro Top? S&P500 Remains on Crash Alert

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Aug 28, 2013 9:17:00 AM

Yesterday the market had one of its largest down days of the year. While intense, it did not bring capitulation that normally accompanies a short term low. The risk of another big down day is high. We could see a rapid drop to 1610.00 where the market will make a critical decision. While the technical measurement targets 1610.00 on the downside where a short term bottom can occur, but if that level is broken, the market can spiral down to 1500.00-1550.00 in a crash like move lower.  

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, Crash Alert, euro

Weekly Market Outlook for The Educated Investor - March 4th, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on Mar 5, 2013 8:21:00 AM

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Topics: Gold, oil, euro, USD, dollar, S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, educated investor, weekly market outlook, market outlook, derivatives, derivatives market specialist, chartered market techinician, support, resistance, support & resistance, trend, trend in force

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