Is the 35 Year Bond Bull Market Over?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jan 29, 2017 12:47:33 PM


David Rosenberg_headshot_HR - small.jpg
In an exclusive interview on, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, discusses his views on Trump, inflation expectations, the Fed, the U.S. Dollar, Bonds and Stocks.  Some of his most interesting observations are his views on bonds and the 35-year secular bond bull market. Bond gurus like Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach have suggested that the bond bull market may be over, but David has a much different view.  Here are some highlights:  

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Topics: bonds, Federal Reserve, economy, fed

Second Quarter Forecast: Bonds, Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 21, 2014 5:42:00 PM

This is the "Part 3" of a "4 Part" blog series - The Second Quarter Forecast.
The Federal Reserve and Central Banks around the world have implemented the greatest monetary experiment in history. There is zero precedence for such a global expansion of money supply, but more importantly, there is zero precedence as to what happens to an economy when the money faucet is shut off. While the media and many analysts are eager to applaud Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen for a job well done, there is ample evidence that the praise is premature. 

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Topics: bonds, Interest Rates, Federal Reserve

Financial Stocks Failing and Bonds Rallying

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 25, 2013 9:08:00 AM

On Monday we specified the key criteria for us to go back on “Crash Alert”. We wanted to focus on the first two criteria (Bonds and Financials) in today’s blog. 

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Topics: Market Forecast, bonds, financial stocks

The Fed, Market Forecast S&P500, Bonds and Gold

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 19, 2013 9:02:00 AM

WOW.  It wasn’t that the Fed didn’t taper.  The message was that economy is in no state to begin tapering any time soon.  The bottom line is that the media pundits and analysts were dead wrong. In our past blogs and presentations we have maintained that the Fed will never be able to exit.  We will have further follow up presentations to explain.

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, bonds, Gold, Fed Tapering

Summers Over, Market Yellen Higher - Market Forecast

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 16, 2013 8:45:00 AM

We were looking for the rally to run out of momentum as we approached overhead resistance, but we find ourselves in a very different situation. Larry Summers pulled his name from consideration for being the next Federal Reserve chairman. This has caused a material rally higher in the market as Summers was viewed as hawkish, which implied higher interest rates and more aggressive Fed action.  With the dovish Janet Yellen being the front runner we see an immediate price adjustment to bonds and stocks. 

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, bonds, Larry Summers, Yellen

Market Forecast on S&P500 and 30 Year Treasury Bonds

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Sep 4, 2013 9:06:00 AM

The market remains in a muddle. The market is starting to see mild signs of being oversold, but is not at any extremes. The headline news of Syria and the pending Friday Jobs report will keep traders on the edge this week.  Yesterday was an important clue as the market popped higher over the long weekend and proceeded to be fully distributed only hours into the trading day. The path of least resistance remains lower.

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, bonds

Market Forecast S&P500, Gold and 30 year Treasury Bonds

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Aug 26, 2013 9:34:00 AM

CRASH ALERT: Crash alerts do not guarantee a crash but simply observe that we are in a market state where all the criteria for a crash are there.

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, bonds, Gold

Market Forecast S&P500, Gold and 10 Year Treasury Bonds

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Aug 12, 2013 9:34:00 AM

The S&P500 has now turned lower from last week’s consolidation highs. While there is further risk of weakness this morning, we believe that there is room for a rally this week to squeeze out overzealous traders that are being too aggressive getting short. Like we emphasized last week, we are in a bull market and the market has yet to do anything bearish.  At the same time markets very rarely advertise a turning of the tides. Those of our readers that have taken our Technical Masters Program understand the rules of symmetry, and it is interesting that the rallies in the Nasdaq100 and the S&P500 have both stalled out at the completion of measured moves. For a market correction to start off these levels would be very natural for the markets.

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Topics: Market Forecast, s&p500, bonds, Gold

Weekly Market Forecast for Traders and Investors March 11, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on Mar 11, 2013 12:41:00 PM

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Topics: Market Forecast, bonds, Gold, oil, S&P, U.S. Dollar, commodities, resistance levels, support levels, intermarket analysis, Canadian Markets, options

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