Is the 35 Year Bond Bull Market Over?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jan 29, 2017 12:47:33 PM

 

David Rosenberg_headshot_HR - small.jpg
In an exclusive interview on MacroVoices.com, David Rosenberg, Chief Economist & Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, discusses his views on Trump, inflation expectations, the Fed, the U.S. Dollar, Bonds and Stocks.  Some of his most interesting observations are his views on bonds and the 35-year secular bond bull market. Bond gurus like Bill Gross and Jeffrey Gundlach have suggested that the bond bull market may be over, but David has a much different view.  Here are some highlights:  

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Topics: bonds, Federal Reserve, economy, fed

Raoul Pal: Day of Reckoning Coming for VIX Shorts?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jan 21, 2017 10:58:44 AM

MacroVoices interview with Real Vision Television co-founder Raoul Pal

Key excerpts in attached article:

  • compares the VIX contango trade to the portfolio insurance problem that was blamed for the 1987 crash
  • they don't realize the rate of change of the VIX can be so extraordinary that the losses can mount up massively and super quickly
  • record level of speculative long positions in the oil markets compares to the conditions in the summer of 2014 prior to the bear market decline
  • The other thing was speculative position in crude oil was all time high in fact if I took the trend going back from the early 80's it was seven standard deviations above that trend and well over three standard deviations maybe four standard deviations from the trend in the last 20 years or 15 years.
  • I've seen a similar situation with copper driven by China and a few other things where copper position is wildly extreme and so I start to think well too much reflation is priced into these things maybe there’s an interesting opportunity on the short side
  • What is interesting oil volatility has been coming lower. Look, I don't think it's going to get back to where it was in 2014 when it was trading below 20 but it has come down from a peak of 80, a kind of a real trading range of 50 down to 30. If it comes any lower the ability to buy options start to make sense because oil volatility can go to 80 can go to a 100
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Topics: oil, copper, vix

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