It was in the last days of August when crude oil made a robust advance to test the $50.00 price level. After retesting $50 in early October, oil has begun to materially decline. The current breakdown has now broken the September consolidation lows at $45.00. With prices breaking decisively below $45.00, which now opens the window to a decline back to $40 or even fresh lows toward $35.00. What is more relevant to me is the deflationary implications of this move. Could declining oil prices be enough of a deterrent for the Fed to formally close the window on increasing interest rates this year? We think so.