October 27th, 2015 - Crude Oil Breakdown and its Implications

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Oct 27, 2015 12:18:00 PM

It was in the last days of August when crude oil made a robust advance to test the $50.00 price level.  After retesting $50 in early October, oil has begun to materially decline.  The current breakdown has now broken the September consolidation lows at $45.00.  With prices breaking decisively below $45.00, which now opens the window to a decline back to $40 or even fresh lows toward $35.00.  What is more relevant to me is the deflationary implications of this move.  Could declining oil prices be enough of a deterrent for the Fed to formally close the window on increasing interest rates this year?  We think so.


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October 21st, 2015 - Will QE2 Start a New Decline in the Euro?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Oct 21, 2015 8:53:00 AM

Mario Draghi and the ECB will hold the press conference on Thursday morning in regards to further monetary policy.  After running the 1.1 trillion dollar QE program, there in now talk that they will consider extending or expanding the QE program which is now being dubbed QE2. Since the unprecedented decline in the Euro in 2014, the currency has stabilized and spent the majority of the 2015 year range bound. We will find out Thursday if there is any substance to the QE2 rumors, but if proven true, we could see the start of a new decline in the Euro, potentially toward parity with the U.S. dollar.


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