Second Quarter Forecast: Bonds, Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 21, 2014 5:42:00 PM

This is the "Part 3" of a "4 Part" blog series - The Second Quarter Forecast.
The Federal Reserve and Central Banks around the world have implemented the greatest monetary experiment in history. There is zero precedence for such a global expansion of money supply, but more importantly, there is zero precedence as to what happens to an economy when the money faucet is shut off. While the media and many analysts are eager to applaud Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen for a job well done, there is ample evidence that the praise is premature. 

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Topics: bonds, Interest Rates, Federal Reserve

Second Quarter Forecast: Commodities and Gold

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 18, 2014 6:00:00 AM

This is the "Part 2" of a "4 Part" blog series - The Second Quarter Forecast.
In Part 1 of our forecast we tackled the current landscape of the global currency markets. International trade of commodities is predominantly transacted in U.S. dollars, making the price movement of the U.S. Dollar a key precipitating factor in the value of commodity prices and the subsequent inflationary/deflationary impact upon an economy. When reflecting upon the prices of commodities over the last several years, it can be generalized as a big chaotic muddle. This "chaotic muddle" is being driven by two conflicting forces - a slowing global economy (generally weakening commodities like copper, iron ore and oil) and a weakening U.S. Dollar that generally leads to a nominal rise in commodities prices. This "chaotic muddle" could turn decidedly bearish for commodities if our bullish dollar forecast comes to fruition. This was a core foundation of our annual forecast and remains  a core thesis for our Second Quarter Forecast.      

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Topics: Market Forecast, Gold, oil, euro, U.S. Dollar, commodities

Second Quarter Forecast: Will the U.S. Dollar Rally Start?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 13, 2014 4:50:00 PM

The Second Quarter Forecast - Part 1: Currencies
The first quarter of the year has been generally uneventful. The January emerging market crisis stabilized and the core central banks in Europe and North America stayed status quo. Throughout history, the first quarter of the year has traditionally had the strongest performance as there is considerable money flow from investors putting retirement savings to work. Subsequently, the second quarter of the year houses the infamous May month from which the "Sell in May and Go Away" adage was coined. So what should you expect? Our forecasting at "Learn to Trade Global" is centered around our Intermarket Analytics methodology.  Intermarket Analysis involves the study of the relationships and correlations of the core asset classes of currencies, commodities, bonds, real estate and stocks. When investors and traders understand the conditions of the global market place, it allows them to identify the path of least resistance for finding investment returns. So let us try to draw some basis conclusions about the markets based on current market conditions.

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Topics: Market Forecast, euro, U.S. Dollar

Does the Stock Market Care What Happens in Ukraine?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 7, 2014 10:37:00 AM

Putin's Russia has dusted off the old Soviet Union Brezhnev Doctrine which defined specific Soviet borders and decided to send a message to the world that Russia will not sit back and watch the west annex the Russian front.  Ukraine has a special place in the Russian consciousness. With much of eastern Europe now in the EU and NATO, it is both Putin’s last line of defense and the core of his planned Eurasian economic union. What makes the Crimea region such a key variable is twofold. First, it is geographically a key sea port into the northern part of the Black Sea and a strategic point of trade for Russia. Secondly, the Crimea population is heavily populated by citizens that are loyal to Russia. 

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Topics: intermarket relations, Russian Ruble, Ukrainian conflict

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