Weekly Market Forecast for the Active Investor-May 28, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 28, 2013 9:13:00 PM

Uncertainty continues to reign supreme in this weeks market forecast as investors and money managers try to make sense of it all.  Stocks in general made a valiant attempt to erase the losses from last week, however sell into strength was the name of the game today.  The Euro continues to lose strength against the U.S. Dollar.

 market forecast may 28

The U.S. Dollar strength has put some pressure on commodities evident in the volatile price action of oil.  Gold and silver respectively chop about as traders remain gun shy after the significant drop and feel the pressure of the strong dollar.

While one would expect that bonds to strengthen under such uncertainty, the U.S. Feds comments on "easing" has spooked bond holders and yields have widened.  For a detailed overview of the markets check out this weeks market forecast video.

We value your comments.  Please feel free to leave a message.  If you haven't downloaded our 31 Insights for the Active Trader, click on the link below.

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Topics: Market Forecast, trading education, stock market training

Stock Market Training: From Buy and Hold To Active Investing

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 28, 2013 4:01:00 PM

Traditionally, the only training an investor receives as they begin to participate in the stock market is the ol’ buy and hold methodology.  Buy and hold has been a piece of investing wisdom handed down from generation to generation.  While this approach works well in a market that is consistently trending up, it fails to address the notion that at some point what goes up has the tendency to come down.  While buy and hold makes sense if you are participating in the trend, so often the approach is more closely resembles “buy and forget” which results in complacency and in many cases regret.

stock market training

The very nature of the buy and hold  approach suggests that if securities are bought and held for a long period of time, over a 10-20 year period, prices will go up regardless of market fluctuation. Historical data (prior to 2000) does indeed support this claim, however this methodology assumes that in a capitalistic society profits will grow, prices will rise and dividends will increase as the economy expands.  This assumption is correct…until it isn’t.  Leaving the consequences of being wrong open ended. Now, of course we have to consider the open market operations of the global central banks in their effort to avoid an economic collapse.  Under current central banking policy the mandate to the mandate is to (in laymen’s terms) make money cheap to stimulate spending and subsequently growth.  We have to recognize that this cannot go on forever and while we want to benefit from the current environment, we also have to recognize that the global economy is on a form of “life support”.

active investing

One thing is for certain, with changes in technology and increased market access, there has never been a better time to take a more active role in managing personal wealth.

It is amazing how the pain of loss from the 2007/2008 market crash has been almost numbed by the 100% plus percent recovery witnessed since the lows in March 2009. Many investors who were reeling over a significant loss of wealth have been lulled into a false sense of security as the markets have surpassed (moderately) historical highs.

Although the intermediate trend appears to be up,   it is important to remember that the markets do not move in a straight line.  The caveat will be to make sure that investment capital is being protected and profits are locked in which will require a change in philosophy  and a shift from the traditional stock market training that many long term investors have come to rely on.

It is important to clarify that active investing is not about being in and out of the market on a day to basis, it means paying attention to market conditions and taking action as needed.  This might mean adding put options as protection or writing call option to help mitigate market volatility or simply offsetting a position entirely. 

Understand of course, that this will require some time and effort.   It is up to the individual to determine just how active they can realistically be. Many investors are on a mission to recover their losses; however the primary consideration should be to protect what they still have. 

The first step is investing and trading education.  Knowledge is power.  Regardless of how much time one has to allocate to the pursuit of recapturing lost wealth, learning the dynamics of the market will put things into a greater perspective.  Stock market training needs to focus on the recognition that one can profit when the market is going up or down.  This will allow the investor to participate and ideally profit without bias. 

There has been an evolution in services provided by many brokers.  One initiative has been the development of educational programs such as the ones that we have been part of with the TMX/Montreal Exchange, T.D., iTRADE, Disnat and National Bank to name a few.  These learning initiatives have been designed to provide insight and ideas to investors looking for answers.  To use an old cliché, a house is not built (or rebuilt) without a solid foundation.  An investor who is on the road to recovery from the last market decline must continue to evaluate goals, establish a time frame and select an approach that is going to help in attaining those goals.

Understanding the options market allows the investor to protect and preserve their capital, take decisive market positions with a limited and identifiable risk exposure and generate cash flow in a market that is trading sideways.  All of these characteristics are extremely important considerations when building and maintaining a portfolio.

Active investing should be boring. If there is one guarantee, "thrill seekers" are separated from their capital fast.

There are some common characteristics shared by many active investors. 

  • An active investor has been trained to be constantly learning, looking for new ideas and opportunities in the pursuit meeting their objectives.

  • An active investor is not concerned with which direction the market is going, just that it is moving, and that they are on the right side of it. 

  • An active investor is constantly evaluating risk and reward, putting capital preservation first on the list of priorities. 

  • An active investor leaves emotions at the door, consistently looking for signs of being wrong, regardless of how much time has been spent researching and rationalizing an opportunity. 

  • An active investor has an entry and exit strategy based on the time frame that they have allocated and they have the discipline to stick to it.  

  • An active investor has a confident understanding of how to read a price chart recognizing that company fundamentals are an important consideration but it is ultimately the price action that dictates profitability. 

To be a successful active investor, one must realize that the price of a stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, not necessarily what the company is “assumed” to be worth, be well aware of the psychology behind what drives the market and, once again, learn to control emotion.

There is no secret to being successful at navigating these markets actively.  Relying too much on fundamental and technical analysis has its shortcomings.  In the end, Your stock market training program should include a combination of personal discipline, a sound methodology and a sensible approach to money management…this will keep you on the path to prosperity.

We value your comments so please leave us a message below.  Be sure to download our 31 Insights for the Active Trader by clicking on the link below.

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Topics: learn to trade stocks, trading education, stock market training

Learn To Trade Stocks With a Different Approach to Risk Management

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 23, 2013 9:01:00 AM

How much money should I allocate to a position? 

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Topics: protective puts, learn to trade stocks, trading education

Weekly Market Forecast for the Active Investor-May 21, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 21, 2013 8:46:00 PM

The U.S. stock market continues to defy gravity lulling investors into a false sense of security and seemingly rendering our weekly market forecast obsolete however Patrick Ceresna our Chief Market Strategist made some great points in this months Market Timing Strategist Newsletter (www.markettimingstrategist.com)

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Topics: Market Forecast, trading education, active investor

A Protective Put For Your Entire Portfolio

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 14, 2013 3:13:00 PM

I just finished an article for the Montreal Exchange. While I encourage everyone to visit OptionMatters.ca for all of the insightful blog contributions, I thought I would share the content with our Learn To Trade Global readers in case you don't make it over to the M-X blog spot.

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Topics: protective puts, portfolio hedging, portfolio beta, index options

Trade the Markets with our Weekly Outlook for May 13, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 13, 2013 1:25:00 PM

Monday Market Outlook -  May 13, 2013

Stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities continue to chop about with very little commitment on the short term charts. Watch our Weekly Outlook to see where we believe the turning points are and what to watch for as signals to take action as you trade and invest in today's uncertain environment. BE SURE TO CLICK READ MORE TO ACCESS TODAY'S VIDEO.
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Topics: market outlook, trade the markets, investor outlook

CBC Special - Central Banks War on People Saving Money

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on May 8, 2013 10:43:00 AM

CBC did a great job asking the right questions about the central banks and the Quantitative Easing policies.  Neil Macdonald discussed the agenda of the central banks and the attack on money savers.  While Mr. Macdonald nailed the right questions, he cannot answer the questions because he does not fully understand what the bigger picture problem is.  DEBT and Money Supply.  None the less, kudos to CBC for going out and trying to tackle the topic that very few understand. CLICK READ MORE TO WATCH THIS VIDEO.

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Trade the Markets with our Weekly Outlook for May 6, 2013

Posted by Jason Ayres on May 6, 2013 12:07:00 PM

Monday Brief

Last week was challenging as traders and investors waited to see what the Feds in the U.S. and the ECB in Europe had to say about the state of the markets and their open market operations.  While the Feds stayed the course, the ECB lowered interest rates slightly in an attempt to stimulate the European economy.  While this move sent the U.S. Dollar higher the stock market was relatively unimpressed...until the monthly jobs numbers on Friday.  The surprise numbers suggested that the economy improved in April and more jobs were created.  This resulted in a substantial swing to the upside for the various U.S. stock exchanges. Even the Canadian stock market has been retracing to the upside as resource and bank stocks have shown some resilience as of late.  It should be noted that the TSX/S&P Composite is still off it's highs and hitting a strong resistance.  As for the forecast for stocks in the U.S., the question is whether the move was partially a result of a short squeeze in which case that reflects more of a fake out instead of a buy signal.  One could use the simultaneous sell of in bonds as a possible indication of a flight to riskier assets however, the question remains how much of the sell off was a result of short term bond traders locking in profits, cutting losses or decreasing position sizes to reduce risk? So it remains to be seen whether the smart money will use this latest rally to "sell in May and go away" or if there is something real here.  For a more in depth overview of our expectations for stocks, commodities, currencies and bonds watch our short video an feel free to give us your thoughts below. BE SURE TO CLICK "READ MORE" TO ACCESS THE VIDEO
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Topics: learn to trade the markets, market outlook, trade the markets

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