VIDEO Part 1 of 4 - Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Market Crash?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Aug 19, 2016 9:08:34 AM

Part 1 of 4 - You have heard it all before, houses are too expensive, foreign investors are inflating prices and speculation is rampant. Yet despite that, the numbers keep rising and people continue to believe that buying houses at these levels are a safe investment. So why is it different now? That's the key question.

Based on an overwhelming number of requests, we have broken down our widely viewed video into 4 smaller parts. 

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WATCH NOW - 2016 Mid Year Global Market Forecast

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jul 24, 2016 2:25:19 PM

Back in December 2015 we made some bold forecasts for the US Dollar, Gold, Oil, Interest Rates and the markets.  So now that 6 months have passed, how are the investment themes developing?  Has our opinion changed?

Watch the video and discover out thoughts on:

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VIDEO - Are You Ready For a Canadian Real Estate Market Crash?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jun 20, 2016 9:45:13 PM

You have heard it all before, houses are too expensive, foreign investors are inflating prices and speculation is rampant. Yet despite that, the numbers keep rising and people continue to believe that buying houses at these levels are a safe investment. So why is it different now? That's the key question.

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Where is the Top for the Canadian Real Estate Market?

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jun 14, 2016 10:39:11 AM

There is an old idiom that “Trees don’t grow to the sky” (… but the trees in Vancouver do grow really damn tall.) 

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You Tell Me If We Are In a Bubble

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on May 4, 2016 8:38:58 PM

Is history just going to repeat itself?

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Global Macro Forecast April 2016

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Apr 26, 2016 6:20:30 AM

Learn To Trade Global's Chief Market Strategist Patrick Ceresna reviews the macro fundamental themes driving the market for the month of April.

 

Macro Foundations Course

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Toronto - Thursday April 26th - 7:00pm EDT -  Humber College North Campus
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Use this understanding to make practical, actionable investment decisions. 

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Global Macro Forecast March 2016

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Mar 10, 2016 6:26:49 PM

 

Learn To Trade Global's Chief Market Strategist Patrick Ceresna reviews the macro fundamental themes driving the market for the month of March.

 

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February 22, 2016 - Canary in the Coal Mine for Canadian Banks

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Feb 22, 2016 3:38:21 PM

Moody's, one of the largest rating agencies is warning that if oil prices remain low, the Canadian banks will likely be forced to cut dividends and potentially raise equity. This is obviously a risk, but not a certainty.  The reason I believe this is a very dangerous trend is because the vast majority of Canadian investment advisors and Canadian investors are firmly entrenched in their unbreakable belief that Canadian banks are safe and conservative. If Moody's concerns come to fruition, there is a very uncomfortable downside risk few are ready for.

CLICK to read article

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January 15, 2016 - Based on this, the Stock Market is Officially in a Bear Market

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Jan 15, 2016 6:53:00 PM

The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are misleading in regards to the underlying conditions in the broader stock market. The reason is based on the fact that both indexes are market cap weighted.  This has allowed a few behemoth names to hold up the price of the index while the majority of the market deteriorated. The chart below shows that the equal-weighted US stock index is in fact down 23% from the highs, which makes it an official bear market.

equal-weighted_0.jpgsource:zerohedge

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December 15, 2015 - Bank of Canada Updates Key Risks

Posted by Patrick Ceresna on Dec 15, 2015 8:42:33 PM

Bank of Canada released its Semi-Annual Financial System Review today.  Interestingly it continues to be concerned about growing levels of household indebtedness and the potential impact it may have on the real estate markets.  When looking  at its risk chart, it is interesting how it has changed from the summer.  It has removed the risks of  a European crisis and risks of a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, and replaced them with -

1. An abrupt increase in global risk premium
(he can't be talking about the high yield bond crisis south of the boarder, can he?)

2. A prolonged weakness in commodity prices.

I do agree with the fact that they associate a higher probability with the risks of a China and Emerging market crisis and prolonged weakness in commodities as the two go hand and hand.  The one thing that the graph fails to illustrate is the fact that all 4 risks are interconnected and the risk that as one worsens, it will have a contagion effect on all the others, making the probability of one, materially increase the risk of the others occurring.  The macroeconomic conditions of 2016 will be more important then ever. 

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/12/fsr-december-2015/

BankofCanadaRisksDec2015.jpg

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